Six years have passed since Fedor Emelianenko was sitting atop the heavyweight division, fresh off his second victory over Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. Six years have passed since Andrei Arlovski leaped in with that lightning quick right hand, dropping Tim Sylvia to the floor, on his way to a submission victory and the UFC Heavyweight belt.
One week has passed since Fedor suffered the the worst beating of his professional career at the monstrous hands of Antonio Silva, while Arlovski suffered his third brutal knockout in his last four fights – all losses – to Sergei Kharitonov in the opening round of the 2011 Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix; And then there were six.
Strikeforce saw more than its’ fair share of action last weekend in New Jersey, as two of the more decorated entrants saw elimination. Sergei Kharitonov came in confident, never taking a step back in his fight with Andrei Arlovski as the Russian was able to knockout the Belarussian in the first round. In the biggest upset of this young 2011, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva was able to use his size and jiu-jitsu to dominate the longtime number one, Fedor Emelianenko, forcing a doctor stoppage after the conclusion of the 2nd round due to the damage Silva rained down from his mount. With that, the two Grand Prix brackets have one semi-finalist a piece.
April will see the conclusion of the quarter-final round of the tournament, as former UFC Champion Josh Barnett faces off with Brett Rogers and Fabricio Werdum looks for his second victory against current Strikeforce Champion and reigning K-1 Grand Prix Champion Alistair Overeem. Who will move on to face the victors of last week’s show? Let’s take a look.
Josh Barnett vs Brett Rogers
This is yet another incarnation of the long standing battle between strikers and grapplers, with a twist. Josh Barnett is one of the shining examples of catch-wrestling in MMA, but he’s shown that he’s no slouch on the feet, as evidenced by his left-hook KO on Pedro Rizzo. Brett Rogers is a heavy hitter with KO power to spare that has shown some acumen on the ground with a sweep-escape from Fedor’s side mounted Kimura attempt. Although this is a more evolved version of the striker/grappler tradition, I fully expect it to go the way that Vegas sees it, with a victory for the 3-to-1 favorite Josh Barnett. Rogers definitely has the ability to knock around Barnett, but there is just too much experience and fight intelligence on the Baby-Faced Assassin’s side. Josh will engage on the feet, but only in order to eventually put Rogers on his back. Barnett’s top control is superb and I would not be surprised if he was able to ground and pound his way to a TKO or to setup a submission. Rogers was able to get out from under a 230 lbs Fedor, but Barnett’s 250+ pounds will most likely dictate the outcome of this fight. Barnett to advance to the next round.
Alistair Overeem vs Fabricio Werdum
In a rematch of the opening round of the last great heavyweight tournament in MMA, the reigning Strikeforce champ Alistair Overeem seeks revenge from his 2006 submission loss in the Pride Grand Prix to Fabricio Werdum. Their first fight saw Overeem dominating most of the action until the fight went to the floor in the second round. Werdum was able to keep his composure and eventually submitted Overeem from his back with a Kimura. That was five years ago. The 2011 Strikeforce version of this match-up is even more compelling. Overeem was still a mystery back in 2006 as he began toying with a jump up to heavyweight after being TKO’d by Shogun in the previous year’s Pride Middleweight (203 lbs in Pride) Grand Prix. Werdum was in only his tenth fight, considered by many to be a top prospect but largely unproven, suffering his only loss up to that point against his first real test (against Strikeforce semi-finalist Sergei Kharitonov). Fast forward to 2011 and you have the arguably the top striker in the world, four months removed from winning the K-1 Grand Prix (the most prestigious kickboxing tournament in the world), facing off against the two-time reigning ADCC over 99kg champion (the most prestigious submission grappling tournament in the world). Once again, we have a striker going up against a grappler. This time, however, I think the striker wins. Werdum has definitely upgraded his striking game since the first match up, but so has Alistair. His time in K-1 has turned Alistair from the Demolition Man that employed a strategy of overwhelming force to a more patient killer, keeping his guard up high while delivering brutality with precision. This patience is key, as Overeem will have to control the distance of the fight the entire time. Fabricio will need to get the fight on the mat, either with a takedown or by pulling guard and if needs be, even by being knocked down by Alistair. Werdum can submit any heavyweight in the world, but I don’t think he will be in the range necessary to do this to Overeem. The size and reach advantage should allow Overeem to pick apart Fabricio from range and I think that Overeem will exercise some extra caution in this fight and not allow Werdum to be in a position to threaten. Overeem is also roughly a 3-to-1 favorite and I expect him to get the “W” here, but Fabricio is definitely being underrated a bit by the boys in Vegas. I predict Overeem to move onto the semi’s.
If the fights play out this way, we will be looking forward to Overeem vs Silva and Barnett vs Kharitonov in the semi-finals sometime this Summer. That first match-up can arguably be considered a fight for a claim to the number 1 spot in the division (no offense, Cain). The potential other side of the bracket is a throwback that the old Pride fans will enjoy, as both Barnett and Kharitonov’s paths never seemed to cross during their respective times in Japan. Great match-ups that I would love to see, but I won’t be getting too attached to them. Last week displayed the one of the beauties of the tournament format, as the betting favorite to win it all has already been eliminated. It’s anyone’s tournament, and both Werdum and Rogers may be semi-final bound. April just can’t get here fast enough.
