The way the MMA odds breakers are laying out the Jones vs Machida betting lines may seem almost ridiculous to some. For example, BetDSI Sportsbook places Jones as the betting favorite by a difference of 150! Check out the UFC 140 betting odds below:
LYOTO MACHIDA PK+375
JON JONES PK-525
There is no doubt that there will be a lot of MMA fans betting on this match, but who will you bet on? Will you go with the huge betting favorite or try to bank on the underdog? If you have read my picks before than you know I love betting on the underdog, but only when it makes $ense.
Jon “Bones” is on a very impressive 5 win streak while Lyoto “The Dragon” just KO’d MMA veteran Randy Couture with a jumping front kick. Jones is the favorite not just because he’s the champ who has successfully defended his title. Jones has already defeated two fighters who Machida lost to: Maurício Rua and Quinton Jackson respectively. He not only defeated them, he finished them.
Machida is said to be the most elusive fighter in MMA. His strengths consist of KO power, strikes with great angles and timing. One of his greatest weaknesses is the way he constantly backs up and circles way. He has been able to get some very effective hit in while counter attacking and retreating, but lately when he does that it looks like he was just running way and not defending nor counter attacking effectively enough.
This is going to be Jones 4th time fighting this year which was within about a 10 month time span. It’s amazing in and of itself that he is able to be included in three title matches in the same year and not sustain a serious enough injury that would have sidelined him a long amount of time.
Although Lyoto definitely has some karate moves Jones need to look out for, Jones reach and unorthodox striking gives him the standup advantage. Jones needs to remember to keep moving and keep his hands up so that he doesn’t eat Lyoto’s weird angle strikes. Lyoto should try to slow down and trip Jones with leg kicks and bait him into eating his counter attacks by retreating intelligently. He should try to feint a lot and switch up his kicking constantly to keep Jones guessing.
If Lyoto’s game plan does not consist of a strong mental game plan that will throw Jones off then there is only a slim chance the plan will work on Jones. But, if Lyoto can get Jones very frustrated by being elusive or by playing possum, than he has a much better chance of winning. Jon is Lyoto’s kryptonite as he is all around better in pretty much all categories so Machida needs multiple game plans if he wants to win. I doubt he will be able to come up with one as he got whipped by Maurício Rua in their re-match in the first round. If he couldn’t come up with a plan against a fighter he already beat then I suspect he won’t be able to come up with an effective enough one against Jon Jones.
