written by Nathan Ryan
nathanadamryan@aol.com
On July 3rd the UFC will truly test the laws of physics with the match up of Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar colliding with the interim title holder Shane Carwin. Both Lesnar and Carwin are on the higher end of the weight scale for the heavyweight division, and both possess legitimate college wrestling credentials. However is it the dimensions and abilities of these fighters that makes this fight so interesting or is it the fact that we, as spectators, know very little about the abilities of both? There is more mystery surrounding these two fighters than the location of Hoffa’s body.
Experience is probably the biggest variable between the two. Carwin has faced and decisively finished 12 opponents in his mixed martial arts career. Arguably only two or three of them were top level competition. Lesnar has faced about the same level of top competition in Couture and Mir (Herring deserves honorable mention). Where Lesnar makes up for his lack of time in the cage, like it or not, is in the WWE ring. This man has performed in front of thousands of fans more times than he can probably remember. It is a safe bet that he does not experience the same prefight jitters as Carwin being that Lesnar is completely used to being on a worldwide stage (even though it is scripted it is still very athletic).
Another aspect of experience that could be a factor in this fight is what happens if the fight makes it to later rounds? We have seen Brock dominate someone for a full three rounds with no slowing down. What will Carwin’s mindset be if he does not KO Lesnar in the first round? Carwin has received an enormous amount of press for his knockout ability, and he is clearly on a streak. The only problem is that out of all the possible outcomes for this fight, statistically there is only a 1 and 8 chance Carwin KO’s Lesnar and that is not taking into account that there is a 12 fight streak going on.
Lesnar’s health and weight presents a level of unpredictability that is unusual to any MMA fight. Apparently, he will not be cutting weight, which means he will be much lighter than in previous fights. Will he be sacrificing strength for speed?
Before his illness, Lesnar was an athletic anomaly in the sport. He was a mixture of the Incredible Hulk and The Flash (this can be seen in the speed and strength in which he shoots in for double leg takedowns). If Lesnar may have had enough strength to sacrifice a small amount, but he cannot afford to lose any of the speed that made him such a distinct heavyweight, if so, he turns into just another big guy wrestler with freakish strength and ceases to be, who even Lesnar refers to as, Brock Lesnar.
This fight can realistically end up anywhere, but it is safe to say that this fight will reach a conclusion in the first two rounds. Carwin’s best strategy would be to do exactly what he did to Mir. Lesnar’s best strategy would be to do exactly what he did to Mir. Mir’s best strategy would be to drop down to light heavyweight. To make a long story short, I have Lesnar in the second round via TKO.
