Last week I gave you guys a heads up about the UFC 141 Free Handicapping Contest with a $10,000 prize pool. Now I’m going to give you another solid with a betting pick on the main event so that you could use it while UFC betting and when making picks for the contest over at UFCContest.com:
Brock Lesnar +120 vs Alistair Overeem -150
Brock is the underdog coming into this fight for good reason. He lost via TKO in the first round against Cain Velasquez while defending the belt in his last fight. Not only did he get the snot beat out of him, he hardly landed any hits against Cain. Lesnar has shown a lot of holes in his striking, defense and ground game. His coach has stated that unlike a lot of Brock’s previous fights, that Lesnar would be 100% coming into this fight. Although Brock is healthy again, he hasn’t fought in over a year so he will have to use the first round of the match to warm up, if he can survive that is.
Alistair Overeem is arguably the best striker in his division, but he put on a very lack luster performance in his last match against Fabricio Werdum. Although he striking is powerful, he leaves holes in his defense because he fights with his hands in a lowered position a lot. This is partially why he ate an average of 2 punches before he could guard intelligently in his fight against Werdum. He also walks right into punches and his head movement consists of lowering his head instead of side to side movement. Overeem’s counter strikes half the time even though he fights better as the aggressor. The reason he counter strikes more then he should is because he hesitates and waits for his opponent to move into a “favorable position.”
I believe both fighters have enough holes in their game that can be seriously exploited, so both have a real shot of winning. I am going with the fighter with less holes and that’s Alistair Overeem. It is possible that Brock Lesnar’s strength, athleticism and wrestling can stop Overeem, as it did Randy Couture, Frank Mir and Shane Carwin, but Alistair’s experience and striking makes him a better bet.
For the handicapping contest over at UFCContest.com, the scoring works by picking the following correct: winner (15 points), method (7 points), round (5 minutes) and minute (1 point). You also get 15 bonus points for guessing all 4 categories correct. This is how I feel the Lesnar vs Overeem match will play out:
Correct Winner: Alistair Overeem
Correct Method: TKO
Correct Round: 3
Correct Minute: 3
The UFC Betting Odds were provided courtesy of BetDSI, the only sportsbook featuring live in-fight betting.
