The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale is a long ways away so you MMA betting fans have plenty of time to crunch numbers before this event taking place on December 15th from Las Vegas. To get you started on your MMA analyses check out the MMA Odds Breaker video below. Brett Okamoto from ESPN.com and Damon Martin from MMAWeekly.com give you their breakdown and picks on the Shane Carwin vs Roy Nelson match-up:
So far the UFC odds at BetDSI Sportsbook are still the same for this fight:
Roy Nelson +150
Shane Carwin -200
Both experts brought up good points when breaking down their picks. Damon Martin pointed out that Shane Carwin has been out of the picture for a while (more than a year) and that he is recovering from surgery. Furthermore, you have to take into consideration that Carwin’s mental game won’t be optimum. How could it after taking so much time off after 2 straight losses and then having to do back surgery after doing 2 surgeries in 2010, one for a intestinal disorder and another for a neck injury.
Bret Okamoto picks Carwin to win. But he failed to mention that Nelson has a better ground game than Carwin does. Roy sports a BJJ Black Belt under Renzo Gracie and even though he has not gotten any wins via submission in 6 years, everyone knows that Roy’s weight alone gives him an advantage in wearing down his opponent when he is on top. Both fighters don’t have the best cardio so I don’t see anyone having the clear advantage during later rounds even though Roy’s midsection looks out of shape.
This fight really is a close pick and I see most people leaning towards Carwin to win, especially since he beat Frank Mir, an opponent Nelson lost to. But you have to consider that Roy has had more MMA fights, more UFC fights in a shorter amount of time than Carwin, and he also has 3 more KO wins over Carwin. For those reasons and more I see Roy Nelson as a great underdog pick against Shane Carwin.
